It is a great honor for me to deliver the A.D. Shroff Annual Public Lecture this year. I joined the Tata Administrative Service in 1965, and I did an assignment that year with Dr. Freddie Mehta, Chief Economic Advisor to the Tata Group. The Tata Group, and Dr. Mehta too, had a very close relationship with Mr. Shroff. So, when I entered as a rookie into the world of business and capitalism, I learned with awe of Mr. Shroff’s reputation. Mr. Shroff’s ideas are interwoven into my lecture today.
I will talk about India’s future. We were led to believe, by the BRICs’ projections, that by 2040 we are destined to be an economic power in the same league as China and the USA. But many are dismayed by what is going on in the country today. We are one of the worst countries to do business in according to international surveys. We have the largest number of mal-nourished children in the world. Our urban infrastructure is miserable. Our power system is limping, some say it is crippled. We must wonder, ‘How will we get from here—our current reality, to there—our great destiny’?
Many big forces are shaping India’s future.
Demographics
One is demographics. India’s demographic profile is expected to provide its economy with a ‘dividend’ propelling it, according to the BRICS projections, by several economic think tanks, to become the third largest economy in the world, after China and the USA. India has a huge population and, within it, a swelling number of young people. In 2010, the working age population (that is persons over 15 years old) was 1,125 million in China. In India it was 850 million. But India’s population is much younger. Whereas the median age of China’s population was 34 years, in India it was only 25. (For comparison, the median age in Europe is 43 years). Therefore, over the next twenty years, India will have many more working age persons than any other country of the world.
Democracy, Capitalism, and Government
India’s demographic profile is a certainty. The babies who will grow into the youth forming India’s population bulge are already born.
However, the form of other forces that will shape India’s future is not fixed. Their forms can change over the next twenty years. These are the forces of democracy, capitalism, and government. And it is the condition of these forces that will determine whether or not India will realize its demographic dividend. Indeed, many fear that India’s demographics could produce a disaster, rather than a dividend, if India’s millions of youth do not have good jobs and confidence in the institutions of the country.
Institutions: humanity’s vehicles into its future
Good institutions are critical for our future. Humanity is not distinguishable from other animals in the design of the process of producing babies. After all the birds do it and the bees do it too.
What does distinguish the human species from other animal species is the development of ‘institutions’ by human beings, institutions with which humanity obtains ends it wants. Very powerful amongst these are the institutions of democracy, capitalism, and government. The way cave men and hunter-gatherers organized their affairs is not the way we organize our affairs now, though we reproduce in the same ways. Over centuries, human beings have evolved the institutions with which human society conducts its affairs, in economic and political spheres.
Institutions are like spaceships that we design to take us to the future we want for ourselves and our children and grandchildren. Economists acknowledge the critical role that institutions play in producing economic growth. Countries with very similar resource endowments have different economic growth trajectories because they have different institutional capabilities, in institutions of government, business, and politics.
The essence of humanity, in contrast to all other animal species, is a conscious evolution of the concept of justice and the development of the means to ensure it. Therefore humanity needs institutions not only to produce economic growth, but also for justice in society. In fact, humanity has applied the concept of the right to life of all living beings even to the right to life of animals. With its desire to defend the rights of animals to also procreate and live, it has to discover new policies and new institutional arrangements.
Thus, we must reconcile somehow the rights of the Ridley turtles on India’s East Coast versus the rights of business enterprises. And the right to survival of tigers in India’s heartlands with the right to livelihoods of the tribal communities who have lived there for centuries too.
Higher aspirations require better institutions
Institutions of politics, democracy, and government must evolve in line with our evolving concepts of human rights. At the same time, we need increasing efficiency in the use of resources to produce the materials and services that human beings expect. Because, not only are the natural resources available to us limited, but the pressure of numbers of people who depend on them is increasing.
Nowhere is the pressure more than in India. India had a population of 300 million when we got our Independence 65 years ago. We are now over 1.1 billion, on the same land with the same sources of water. Standards of what is a good life have also changed meanwhile. To have a bicycle was a luxury for many middle class Indians 65 years ago. Now, it must be a car.
Of course, the combination of increasing numbers and rising expectations creates a wonderful market for businesses. Which is what makes India attractive for capitalists from all over the world. However if the ways in which they produce, and what they produce and sell, does not change, the limits of the environment could become a serious constraint on business growth.
Spaceships for new journeys
Revisiting the role of India’s Planning Commission
The Pain of our Planet
Capitalism and Democracy
Here India has a long way to go. When our elected representatives say, ‘You have elected us, now keep quiet and leave it to us till we come back for your votes next time’, they kill the very concept of deliberative, deep democracy.
This is good thing that Democracy of India has made a huge Impact on the World.
on Jul 11, 2013